Carling Cup; Semi-Final: Birmingham City V West Ham United – Wednesday, 26th January (LIVE on SKY SPORTS HD1)

Birmingham City V West Ham United

Wednesday, 26th January – 19:45 (GMT)
Venue: St Andrews
TV Coverage: Sky Sports HD1

Birmingham City

On one hand, Birmingham manager Alex McLeish will be delighted for his team to get away from all the doom and gloom of a disappointing league campaign which sees the Blues struggling near the foot of the table and very much in the midst of a fight for survival. Then again, well aware that he doesn’t boast the strongest of squads when it comes to strength in depth, the Scot would have ideally liked to have handed some of his key figures some much needed respite following what has been a typically arduous festive period, however their hectic schedule means that isn’t a viable option.

After their Carling Cup Semi-Final second leg with West Ham on Wednesday, Birmingham entertain Coventry City in the fourth-round of the FA Cup in what will be their third game in a week – their most recent a morale-bashing 5-0 defeat away at Manchester United in the league. If it hasn’t already, fatigue will begin to set in and you get the feeling Alex McLeish will need to make sacrifices over the forthcoming weeks, and by that I mean he may need to make wholesale changes in either Wednesday’s Carling Cup encounter or their weekend tie with Coventry in order to preserve the conditioning and availability of influential players. I would hazard a guess at the FA Cup slipping down the club’s list of priorities, as the Blues are potentially just 90 minutes away from booking their place in their first major final since losing out to Liverpool in the 2000/2001 Worthington Cup, now named the Carling Cup.

Unfortunately, despite doing some digging, we aren’t entirely sure whether McLeish will name his strongest possible eleven on Wednesday. However, the Blues chief may have had his hand forced following comments from club chairman Peter Pannu regarding how disappointing McLeish’s signings have been during his, what we would define as successful tenure as manager. A point to prove perhaps for the former Rangers and Scotland boss? An appearance at Wembley in the final of the Carling Cup would certainly go some way to silencing his critics.

Speaking of McLeish’s signings, David Bentley is ineligible after featuring for his parent club, Tottenham Hotspur, in the earlier rounds. Defensive stalwart Scott Dann is the only other notable absentee for Birmingham, though the Blues do at least have home comforts to fall back on. The St Andrews faithful has seen their team lose just two of their previous 32 competitive matches on home soil, as well as four wins on the spin in the Carling Cup this season over Rochdale (3-2), MK Dons (3-1), Brentford (1-1P) and arch-rivals Aston Villa (2-1), though one of those was via a penalty shoot-out.

West Ham United

Love him or loath him, Avram Grant has an almost unrivaled record when it comes to leading clubs to finals. The Israeli guided Chelsea to the 2007/2008 UEFA Champions League final in Moscow, while two years later he took already relegated Portsmouth to the 2009/2010 FA Cup final against all the odds – However, the 55-year old was unsuccessful on both occasions and still awaits his first piece of silverware in English football.

With speculation over his future at the club having hit fever point in recent weeks, this may be Grant’s last opportunity to advertise his credentials as a manager, not least to continue his trend of having guided every club he has managed in English football to a final. Fortunately for him his Hammers side are well placed to maintain the trend, goals from Mark Noble and Carlton Cole at Upton Park two weeks ago handing West Ham a 2-1 aggregate lead meaning a first final in over twenty years beckons for the club provided Avram Grant’s men avoid defeat at St Andrews, a ground they’ve failed to win at on their two previous visits.

While the aggregate score would suggest West Ham are the favourites to book a Wembley date with Arsenal on February 27th, their away record this season would imply that Grant has a mammoth task on his hands. In the Premier League, West Ham have only won one of twelve away matches this season – Fulham 1-3 West Ham, losing half of those, and have an away goal difference in the league of -14 (10-24). However, the Hammers do at least arrive at St Andrews with some away reassurances having lost just one of their last four away encounters, though they haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home all season, whatever the competition.

Well aware that each game could be his last should the result not be to the board’s satisfaction, Avram Grant will have no qualms in naming the strongest team possible at St Andrews, a game the Hammers only need to avoid defeat in to qualify for the final. He will, though, have to put together a starting XI which doesn’t contain the suspended Victor Obinna or Frederic Piquionne, while Carlton Cole is nursing a knee injury and may not recover in time. On the plus side, Scott Parker will return to add some steel to a midfield which simply must hold its own in the center of the park if the Hammers are to avoid being overrun in an area of the pitch where games are so often won and lost.

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Pointers

Birmingham City

- The club’s last appearance in a major final was in this very competition nearly a decade ago, losing out to Liverpool on penalties in what was the Worthington Cup back in 2001.

- Birmingham have lost just two of their last 32 competitive matches at St Andrews.

- Birmingham have scored two or more goals in any one match in just two of their last nine competitive matches, neither of those coming at St Andrews.

West Ham United

- West Ham manager Avram Grant has made it to two major finals during his short managerial career, the 2007/2008 UEFA Champions League final in Moscow with Chelsea and the 2009/2010 FA Cup with Portsmouth, the Israeli losing both.

- The Hammers have won just one of their last 30 away games in the Premier League, just three of their last 33 away matches in all competitions.

- Have an immaculate record in the cups this season under Avram Grant, the Hammers having won all five of their matches in the Carling Cup, albeit one of those with the assistance of extra-time, and one FA Cup tie.

Head-to-Head

- In five Premiership encounters at St Andrews since 2003, Birmingham have only won one of them compared to West Ham’s two – Lee Bowyer with the only goal of the game when Birmingham won 1-0 last season.

- West Ham were victorious in the most recent League Cup clash, Joe Cole on the scoresheet that night as the Hammers recorded a 3-2 win at St Andrews back in 1999.

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Match Prediction: Draw – 3.60 BetFred

It’s simple for Birmingham: Win the second leg outright and you’re through to next month’s final to face Arsenal. Anything less and the Hammers will do their victory parade on Birmingham turf. Only a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Birmingham will take this tie into extra-time, possibly even penalties should neither score thereafter.

Don’t get me wrong, St Andrews has been something of a fortress for Birmingham City ever since their return to the Premiership for the 2009/2010 season (You’ll find a couple of eye-catching statistics in the ‘Pointers’ section). However, the Hammers have shown some real grit and determination in recent weeks during a period where their manager has found his tenure as manager hanging by the slimmest of threads.

Being without Victor Obinna and Frederic Piquionne, the latter the club’s leading goalscorer this season, does hinder their chances, however the return of Scott Parker was telling for us. In a match where West Ham require players with heart rather than an eye for the goal, Parker really does lead by example with his workmanlike attitude. I expect the likes of Parker, Upson and Robert Green to shine on the night as Grant continues to defy not just all the odds, but adversity.

Value Bet: West Ham to Qualify – 1.67 SkyBet

Match Odds:

Birmingham City – 2.10 Bet365 (General)
Draw – 3.60 BetFred
West Ham United – 3.60 VictorChandler