Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Prediction 30th April 2013

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Betting Preview
Talk about having a mountain to climb. The second leg of the Champions League semi final is all set up and Jose Mourinho’s men have to find something special. The Spanish outfit were thumped 4-1 in Dortmund in the first leg, but their glimmer of hope will all rest in that precious away goal which they grabbed. But for the second time in this season’s Champions League Madrid were shot down by the former Bundesliga Champions. Is it too much of a mountain to climb for Merengues?

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Betting Odds at online bookmaker Ladbrokes
Real Madrid 4/7, Draw 3/1, Borussia Dortmund 3/1

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Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Recommended Bet:
Cristiano Ronaldo netted his 50th Champions League goal last Wednesday, and how important could it turn out to be. It was totally overshadowed by the four goals that Robert Lewandowski scored for Dortmund on the night, leaving Madrid with a massive task on their hand. Worryingly for Real Madrid, they were very nearly beaten at the Bernabeu in the group stage by Dortmund, only a late strike by Mesut Ozil rescuing a draw for the Merengues. Madrid have to go out and win by a three goal margin, more if they concede on the night, and their defence perhaps hasn’t been quite reliable enough to suggest that Dortmund won’t find the back of the net. Real Madrid need a huge improvement to what they have produced in the other three meetings against Dortmund this season. Under Jose Mourinho, Madrid have won 14 of 17 European home matches, nine of those wins came by a big enough margin which would keep them in the competition this time around.

Real Madrid have to match the record for the biggest first leg victory overturned in the Champions League. In the 2003/04 competition, AC Milan lost 4-1 at home against Deportivo La Coruna and then the Spaniards hit back to win the second leg 4-0. So there is just one precedence set for this situation. Real Madrid’s home record against German sides is W18 D4 L2, so it is pretty strong. They beat Bayern Munich on home soil in the semi finals last season, before losing in a penalty shootout. In two-legged ties against German sides in UEFA competition, Madrid’s record stands at aW11 L7. They have overturned a first leg away deficit 22 times before but they have lost out on 14 other occasions, including the last three times when they have been beaten away in the first leg. Madrid have won two and drawn one of their last three home games against Dortmund in the Champions League.

The last time Dortmund were in the semi finals, they lost out to Real Madrid back in 1998, so some big revenge could be on the cards here. They have a massive lead to defend thanks to some pretty much unstoppable play in the first leg. The Germans may well have the beating of the Spaniards this season, and they are unbeaten on the road in this season’s Champions League, the only remain side to have not lost. Their overall record in Spain stands at W1 D4 L5, so they haven’t had a great time of things in Spain. Their record in two legged ties with Spanish clubs though is W4 L2. This is just their third Champions League semi final appearance but they are holding all the aces after that first leg. Lewandowski’s four goal haul now means that he has continued in 52% of all their goals in the competition this season. They should be able to take a lot of confidence from two wins and two draws from their last four matches against Real Madrid. Only once before in 14 UEFA ties have they lost the tie after winning the first leg at home. The sole occasion it did happen, they squandered a three goal lead.

Jurgen Klopp’s men look as if they have what it takes to hang on to this one, and a draw isn’t out of the question at odds of 3/1 at online bookmaker Ladbrokes.

Stat Attack
Real Madrid have conceded seven goals in their last two Champions League matches
Four of Dortmund’s away games in the ECL this term have ended in draw
Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in each of his last six Champions League appearances
Madrid’s European shootout record is W1 L2, Dortmund’s shootout record is W2 L0