Crystal Palace v Brighton Prediction 10th May 2013

Crystal Palace v Brighton Betting Preview
A strong finish to the season for Brighton saw them claim fourth place in the Championship, finishing three points clear of fifth placed Crystal Palace. There may not be too much to chose between the two sides in this one, and having home advantage in the second leg could just swing things in favour of Brighton. Both are in decent form and this should be a pretty intense clash.

Crystal Palace v Brighton Betting Odds at online bookmaker Ladbrokes
Crystal Palace 6/4, Brighton 17/10, Draw 12/5

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Crystal Palace v Brighton Recommended Bet:
Palace looked pretty solid play off contenders all season, but after posting just one win in their last ten matches of the season, they ran out of steam a bit. They lost four of those ten as well as their own goals dried up and their defence fell apart. Palace failed to score in five of their last ten. They head to the play offs with just one win in their last five home matches in the Championship and at home in total this season, they posted a W13 D8 L2 record. So they have bent a little bit but were still hard to break. That may be the kind of spirit which fits them well for the play off challenge. At home, they scored 52 goals in the regular season at a rate of 2.26 per game. Defensively they conceded at a rate of 1.35 goals per game. 78% of their regular season home matches, 78% of their games went over 2.5 goals.

Crystal Palace won 3-0 at home earlier in the season against Brighton and lost 3-0 in the reverse fixture. Palace’s 3-2 win over Peterborough on the final day of the season snapped a nine game run with a win. In their last four play off matches, Crystal Palace are without a win. They lost in the semi finals to Watford in 2006 and against Bristol City in 2008. Gus Poyet’s Brighton went unbeaten in their last nine Championship matches to close out the season with, winning their last three in a row. They finished the season with the best defensive record in the Championship, conceding just 43 goals. On the road during the regular season, they conceded at a rate of just 1.13 goals per game. The Seagulls have proven themselves strong finishers to matches, conceding a joint league low tally of eight goals in the final fifteen minutes of matches this term.

Brighton drew six 0-0 matches during the season, a league high but that may fly in the face of meetings with Palace. The last six clashes between the two sides have produced a total of 18 goals, an average of three per game. Brighton go to the Championship play offs with a W8 D9 L6 record on the road during the regular season, but unbeaten in their last four. It could all be about Brighton just holding their own and taking their chances fully back at home, where they are very strong.

Given the high amount of draws that Brighton posted through the regular season, and Palace struggling for wins, a draw may be worth backing in the first leg of this semi final. Trading at a price of 12/5 at online bookmaker Ladbrokes, a draw may be a good option.

Form
Palace DLDDDW, Brighton DWDWWW

Stat Attack
The last season meetings have produced an average of 3 goals per game
Both games this season ended in 3-0 wins for the home side
Brighton are unbeaten in their last nine in the Championship
Palace have won just one of the last ten in the Championship