Watford v Leeds Prediction 4th May 2013

Watford v Leeds Betting Preview
Gianfranco Zola’s Watford were handed an automatic promotion lifeline last weekend with second placed Hull blowing their lines against relegation threatened Barnsley. It has left a chance on the final day of the regular season for Watford to sneak second place behind Cardiff and secure a spot in the Premier League next season. A draw could be enough for them at the end of the day against Leeds, but a win would mean that Hull would have to match that to hold on to second spot.

Watford v Leeds Betting Odds at online bookmaker Bet365
Watford 2/5, Draw 7/2, Leeds 7/1

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Watford v Leeds Recommended Bet:
The Hornets can really pile the pressure on Hull here as they go as heavy favourites to take the win. Because they have a massive goal difference in their favour over Hull, if the Tigers lose against Cardiff then the Hornets would only need a draw. A draw for Hull means that Watford would have to produce a win. Zola’s men look good enough to get that, having won their last two matches back to back. After a mini slump in mid April, they have bounced back to thrash Blackburn and then grab an important win away at Leicester City last weekend. At home in the Championship this season, Watford have posted a W11 D5 L6 record, which is a 50% success rate. They have been good in front of goal, returning an average of 1.8 goals per game, conceding just over one goal per game at the back.

The Hornets are unbeaten in their last three on home soil and they haven’t conceded in their last two home matches either. The reverse fixture earlier in the season, saw Watford thump Leeds 6-1, their biggest win of the season. They are also unbeaten in their last four league matches against Leeds, taking two wins and two draws. Troy Deeney has scored five goals in his last seven for Watford. So Watford’s automatic promotion hopes are still alive and could be helped by the fact that Leeds are slumping again. They hit a mini revival after Brian McDermott took charge, but back to back reverses in their last two games have seen them start to struggle again. In total, they have lost six of their last eight matches now in the Championship.

Leeds have lost their last three away games in a row and have not produced a win in their last twelve matches on the road. They have also conceded in each of their five away games and have conceded at an average rate of 1.7 goals per game on the road. They have scored at an average rate of just over a goal per game. Their total away record for the season in the Championship stands at W3 D7 L12, so not great by any margin and a big reason why they are struggling so much. A good trend to look out for, is that all of Leeds’ last four defeats have been by a one goal margin, in fact all of their last six league matches have been settled by a one goal margin, either in defeat or victory.

Leeds don’t look as if they have enough in the tank, with just two wins in their last eleven to stop Watford from pushing on and getting the victory that could take them to the Premier League. Given the pressure on the game a One Goal Winning Margin for Watford at a price of 11/4 at online bookmaker Bet365 may be worth considering.

Form
Watford WDLLWW, Leeds LLWWLL

Stat Attack
Watford have scored two goals or more in nine of their last 11 home games
Watford beat Leeds 6-1 earlier in the season, their biggest winning margin of the season
Leeds have not won away in the Championship in the last twelve attempts
Leeds have lost six of the last eight in the league