Crystal Palace v Watford Championship Play Off Final Prediction 27th May 2013

Crystal Palace v Watford Betting Preview
Gianfranco Zola saw late drama in his side’s efforts to make it the Championship Play Off Final, and now his Watford side go as favourites in the Wembley showcase finale. The Hornets finished five points ahead of the Eagles in the regular Championship season. Watford had a chance to win automatic promotion ahead of Hull, but blew their lines on the final day of the season. But Crystal Palace saw wins evading them greatly towards the end of the season. But some solid defensive worth through the play off semi finals against Brighton sees them take their spot in their fifth Championship Play Off final.

Crystal Palace v Watford Betting Odds at online bookmaker Sportingbet
Watford 5/4, Crystal Palace 12/5, Draw 23/10

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Crystal Palace v Watford Recommended Bet:
The Championship season started off with a Crystal Palace v Watford fixture on the opening day, and now it has all come full circle, the same fixture being the final game of the season in the Championship Play Off Final. Palace lost that opening home fixture against the Hornets, and then held out for a 2-2 draw in the return league match at Vicarage Road. Crystal Palace went up against Brighton in the play off semi final, and after a goalless first leg, a double strike by Wilfried Zaha, who is off to Manchester United, was enough to see them through. The form of Ian Holloway’s men started to fade a bit towards the end of the season, struggling to post wins on the board. But their great first half of the season, and some defensive resilience saw them hold on to a play off spot, despite winning just one of their last ten regular season fixtures. So they haven’t been in top form, but they have vast Championship Play Off Final experience.

This is the fifth Championship Play Off Final that Palace will have contested. They have won three of their previous four. They will go into the match though with a massive void up front, as Glenn Murray, who finished top scorer in the Championship, is out of the Wembley match because of a knee injury. So the Eagles are going as underdog for this one, not only failing to beat Watford in the league this season, but because they are missing their top striker. Worse still for Holloway’s men is that they finished fourth, and that is the jinxed position when it comes to Championship Play Off promotion. The team finishing fourth in the league standings, have only won promotion in 15% of all Championships play offs, and it is the finishing position which has produced the most losing finalists in the Play Off Finals in the Championship. It’s not the spot to finish in really if you want promotion to the Premier League.

The coin is firmly flipped for the Hornets though, who finished third in the Championship. Teams finishing third have won the play offs most often (38% of all Championship play offs) and not only that, but five of the last seven Championship play off finals have all been won by the side who finished the regular season in third. That is including the last two finals, where Swansea and West Ham gained promotion. Watford have a lot of goalscoring power in their ranks and finished top scorers in the Championship. In Matej Vydra and Troy Deeney, they were the only side to have two players who had returned over twenty goals during the season. Deeney has netted six goals in his last nine matches now for Watford.

It took a seventh minute injury time winner for Watford in the second leg of their semi final against Leicester to book their spot at Wembley. This will be their third Championship Play Off final, and they have a hundred per cent record from the other two. Both of Watford’s promotions to the Premier League came seven years apart. 2013 is now another seven years on from their last promotion to the top flight in 2006. They should have enough firepower to see off Palace, who are crucially missing Glenn Murray. There have been plenty of goals in previous meetings between these two so Over 2.5 Goals is value trading at a price of Evens at online bookmaker Sportingbet.

Form
Crystal Palace DDDWDW, Watford LWWLW

Stat Attack
The last ten meetings have averaged 3.8 goals per game between the two sides
The team who scored first in both league meetings this season didn’t go on to win
Crystal Palace have reached more Championship play off finals than any other side
The team finishing 3rd in the regular season have won the most play off finals