Fulham v Chelsea Prediction 17th April 2013

Fulham v Chelsea Betting Preview
The Premier League is in its final stretch now, and this London derby sees Chelsea playing a bit of catch up in the race for a top five finish. The Blues have to knuckle back down to business now after losing their grip on the FA Cup in defeat against Man City on Sunday. As for Fulham, they are aiming for a top half of the table finish, but the wins have just been deserting Martin Jol’s men of late. But will the Whites be able to take advantage of Chelsea fatigue?

Fulham v Chelsea Betting Odds at online bookmaker Betfair
Chelsea 10/11, Draw 5/2, Fulham 3/1

Online bookmaker Promotion
You can take some Acca insurance at betting exchange Betfair this week on matches taking place from April 16th through 18th inclusive. Just opt in to their promotion and bet £5 or more on a fivefold acca (or above) with Betfair on matches from the Premier League and other major competitions and if one leg lets you down, then you will get half of your stake refunded.

Fulham v Chelsea Recommended Bet:
The Whites don’t have a strong history against Chelsea, winning just one of their previous 23 Premier League meetings with their London rivals. They are currently on a stretch of thirteen matches against Chelsea without a win, but seven of those have been draws. Martin Jol’s men frustrated Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in a 0-0 draw back at the end of November. They haven’t been in too bad of form lately, losing just one of their last seven in the Premier League. At Craven Cottage they have won the last two back to back (both by a one goal margin) and they have scored at a rate of 1.7 goals per game on home soil. They have been fairly tight at the back at home, conceding at a rate of 1.3 per game. 67% of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season in the top flight.

After beating Spurs and QPR though, Fulham were humbled at Newcastle and then held to a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa on the weekend. But with three home wins out of the last four (the anomaly a defeat against Man United) they could be in good shape here. Dimitar Berbatov has scored four goals in his last three Premier League home games for Fulham. So will the Whites be able to take advantage of the busy fixture list Chelsea have been suffering through? Rafa Benitez’s men had to play a Europa League match on Thursday night, before taking on Man City in the FA Cup semi final on Sunday. Sunday’s match was draining for a lot of the Chelsea crew, who have played so many games this season. It could well be a factor in this match and therefore make Fulham value.

Chelsea have won none of their last four Premier League away matches, and making worse reading than that, is they have lost the last three in a row. They have taken hits at Newcastle, Man City and Southampton on the road and that makes them not great value at a short price here. Chelsea’s away record this season is pretty average, just W7 D3 L5 and they have scored at a rate of 1.7 goals per game on the road, conceding at a rate of 1.3 on their travels. Chelsea have taken 14 points from eight London derbies this season (W4 D2 L2), and have conceded at a rate of just a goal per game in them. There is also the fact that Rafa Benitez has never lost in the Premier League against Martin Jol.

A tough game to call, but the energy of Fulham could be enough to dampen the spirits of the Blues some more. The Blues need the points in the race for a Champions League spot, but the Whites may just nick this. Fulham are great value to win outright at 3/1 with online bookmaker Betfair.

Form
Fulham WDWWLD, Chelsea LWWWLL

Stat Attack
The Whites have only failed to score in two of their home matches this season
The last four derbies between the two have ended in draws
Martin Jol has never won a game against Rafa Benitez as coach in the Premier League
Fulham have won just one of 23 EPL meetings with Chelsea