Premiership: Aston Villa V Manchester City – Saturday, 22nd January (LIVE on ESPN)

 

Aston Villa V Manchester City

Saturday, 22nd January – 17:30 (GMT)
Venue: Villa Park
TV Coverage: ESPN

 

Aston Villa

While nobody is likely to exceed the amount Manchester City splashed out on Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko, we feel there is no question as to which of the January transfers so far has raised more eyebrows than Darren Bent’s shock move to Aston Villa from Sunderland, the England international swapping a club with European aspirations for a relegation scrap with the Villains. Now the question is, can Bent fire Villa up the table and away from the lower reaches of the Barclay’s Premier League?

I suppose you could argue that it’s been a desperately disappointing season for Villa so far, and desperate times often calls for desperate measures. I’m not saying Houllier’s acquisition of Bent was a poor move, nor that the former Sunderland hitman isn’t worth a single penny of his massive price-tag. What I am saying is that Houllier is going about it all the right way if he wishes to turn the vast majority of his peers against him. The Frenchman has incensed Steve Bruce by his arrogance over the deal regarding Bent for not even discussing the switch with the Sunderland chief, while he earned the wrath of Blackpool manager Ian Holloway earlier in the week for his insulting valuation of Charlie Adam.

I never really pictured Gerard Houllier as being some sort of Highwayman – acquiring those who catch his eye while out on his travels, and although he isn’t required to go traveling this weekend, victory over high-flying Man City would only further boost his profile as the Premier League’s very own pickpocket. No-one expects them to beat the Citizens on Saturday, not even with home advantage on their side, though it really would be salt in wounds material should he successfully plot title-chasing City’s downfall this weekend.

As we mentioned, no-one really expects Aston Villa to prove too strong for a Man City team who have recorded more victories away from home than Villa have all season. The Villains have been victorious in just one of their last five matches at home and haven’t beaten a team currently positioned in the top half of the table. The diamond in the rough will be the fact four of Villa’s five league wins this season have come at Villa Park, though they’ve lost three of their last four on home soil and Houllier’s charges last celebrated victory in the Premier League six games ago on 11th December.

Ashley Young returns from his suspension although Emile Heskey will serve the last leg of his three-match ban. LIndiae Young and Stephen Ireland are both out injured, while John Carew has just complete a loan switch to rivals Stoke City.

Aston Villa Fact: The Villains have lost six of their last nine league games under Gerard Houllier.

 

Manchester City

In a post-match interview following his team’s 4-2 triumph over Championship side Leicester in an FA Cup replay, Roberto Mancini openly discussed how defensively his team has performed to an unsatisfactory standard of late and it was refreshing to see a manager not try and cover over the cracks but more make a point of them and convince folk that he will get straight down to business in the next training session with regards to addressing the issue at hand. But it is a massive concern for punters, especially if the Italian doesn’t resolve the issue in time for Saturday’s trip to Aston Villa, where the Citizens will line up against a player they know all about in Darren Bent – the former Sunderland striker scoring the only goal of the game, from the penalty spot in stoppage time, when City suffered their very first defeat of the season away at Sunderland way back in August.

Even though his opposite number possess a player who is a proven match-winner in Darren Bent, Mancini will nevertheless feel he has the edge when it comes to who has the most potent strike-force. To be honest, there aren’t many, any even, who can match City’s fire-power now that they’ve partnered Carlos Tevez, the Premier League’s joint-leading scorer for the term with 14 goals, with Bosnian goal-getter Edin Dzeko, scorer of 66 goals in the German Bundesliga and a player who impressed on his debut against Wolves last weekend, despite failing to get on the scoresheet.

I was never aware of this until I dug deep and did a little research, but I was amazed to see that City have lost just two of their last sixteen meetings with Aston Villa in the Premier League, and just one of their last seven. Moreover, Mancini has never lost a match with the Villains, meanwhile his Citizens side are gunning for their fourth league victory over the Birmingham-based outfit in five games. It all makes for intriguing reading, whilst lamenting City’s claims for favourtism in a contest which over the years has been very kind to them.

While it may not have been entirely convincing, progress was made in the FA Cup on Tuesday which kept alive City’s quest for silverware. Leicester were eventually killed off courtesy of Alex Kolarov’s first goal in English football, as City scored four goals in a match for the third time in three weeks. Aston Villa were one of the opponents City smashed for four during this period, a Mario Balotelli hat-trick easing City towards a comfortable 4-0 win at Easltands on 28 December. The fact this second encounter with the Villains is being played at Villa Park should mean a second rout is off the cards, though we wouldn’t rule it out what with the strike-force they have and the abundance of flair and craftsman in their midfield. To be honest, I just don’t see how City won’t be too strong for a Villa team who have lost seven of their last eleven league contests.

Mario Balotelli bagged a hat-trick in the previous meeting with Villa, two coming from the spot, though the cocky Italian won’t even be at the game on Saturday. The recently crowned Young Player of the Year was sent away to America to aid his recovery from a knee injury. Kolo Toure is also likely to be absent, after the defender limped out of City’s last league clash with Wolves last weekend and didn’t even make the squad for their FA Cup tie with Leicester in midweek.

 

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Last 5 Results

Aston Villa

Premiership: Birmingham City 1-1 Aston Villa
FA Cup: Sheffield United 1-3 Aston Villa
Premiership: Aston Villa 0-1 Sunderland
Premiership: Chelsea 3-3 Aston Villa
Premiership: Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa

Manchester City

FA Cup (Replay): Manchester City 4-2 Leicester City
Premiership: Manchester City 4-3 Wolves
FA Cup: Leicester City 2-2 Manchester City
Premiership: Arsenal 0-0 Manchester City
Premiership: Manchester City 1-0 Blackpool

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Head-to-Head (Last 5 Seasons)

2010/2011: Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa

2009/2010: Manchester City 3-1 Aston Villa
2009/2010: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City

2008/2009: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa
2008/2009: Aston Villa 4-2 Manchester City

2007/2008: Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City
2007/2008: Manchester City 1-0 Aston Villa

2006/2007: Manchester City 0-2 Aston Villa
2006/2007: Aston Villa 1-3 Manchester City

2005/2006: Aston Villa 0-1 Manchester City
2005/2006: Manchester City 3-1 Aston Villa

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2010/2011 Premiership Statistics

Aston Villa

League Position: 17th
Win-Draw-Lose: 5-7-10 (Home: 4-4-3)
Goal Difference: 24-39 (Home: 15-13)
Form: LLDLD (Home: DLWLL)
Top Scorer: Stewart Downing (5)

Manchester City

League Position: 2nd
Win-Draw-Lose: 13-6-4 (Away: 6-3-2)
Goal Difference: 37-19 (Away: 19-9)
Form: WWWDW (Away: WDWWD)
Top Scorer: Carlos Tevez (14)

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Betting Odds & Tips

Match Prediction: Manchester City to WIN – 2.15 Victor Chandler

I’m afraid not even the expensive Darren Bent helps Villa to put a dismal record against Saturday’s opponents City in the shade, the Eastlands outfit having won three of the previous four league meetings and having lost just two of the last fourteen in the Premier League.

The one thing Villa do have in Bent is a player who only this season scored a winning goal against Man City, albeit for Sunderland near the very beginning of the season. Even so, Bent will no doubt be champing at the bit to make his debut and to prove so many wrong, like us, for example. Instead, however, we only envisage one winner, and it isn’t the Claret colours of Aston Villa.

Although we, along with many others, have criticised their lacklustre defence of late, shipping five goals in their last two matches alone, neither against sides quite as good as Aston Villa. Nevertheless, there’s simply too much quality within the City ranks to oppose them at Villa Park, a venue which has been kind to them over the years and where the hosts, Villa, have tasted defeat in three of their last four league games.

Carlos Tevez is bang in form, scoring a screamer in midweek as City eventually sailed through to the fourth-round of the FA Cup. Yaya Toure has been an instant hit with his marauding runs forward from deep, while Edin Dzeko will be just as eager to kick-start his scoring spree with his new club as Darren Bent.

Only one winner for me although I do foresee both teams scoring in this contest, what should be a wide-open encounter between the two.

Value Bet: Darren Bent to Score – 3.00 SkyBet

Scored Sunderland’s winner earlier in the season, when the Black Cats recorded a 1-0 win over the Citizens on Wearside, so can Darren Bent repeat the trick?

 

Match Odds:

Aston Villa – 3.75 Paddy Power
Draw – 3.40 William Hill
Manchester City – 2.15 Victor Chandler